While a new set of sanctions against Russia went into effect this week and a second round likely is coming soon, the Trump administration still is searching for a way to forge a friendly relationship with Vladimir Putin.
Under a 1991 law on the use of chemical weapons, the Trump administration is required to punish Russia if it doesn’t take steps to account for the March attack on Sergei Skripal and his daughter involving the nerve agent Novichok in Salisbury, England.
The first round of U.S. sanctions for the poisonings came into effect on Monday with a ban on the export of security-sensitive goods and technology.
The second round of more punishing sanctions, which are required to come into effect by November, could include banning flights to the United States by Russian airlines, downgrading or suspending diplomatic relations, and prohibiting U.S. bank loans to the Russian government.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo wants to meet with Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov before the second round of more severe sanctions kicks in.
A diplomat familiar with the planning said it was unclear if the Pompeo-Lavrov meeting would happen in Washington or in New York on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in late September. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Tuesday that it was “quite probable” the two would meet at the U.N. event, according to Russian news agencies.
In a statement to The Washington Post, State Department spokeswoman Heather Nauert said, “The secretary proposed a meeting to address issues that are important to our bilateral relationship.” She stressed that no “off ramp” was discussed related to the pending Skripal sanctions.
Other U.S. officials, including Bolton, have also said the sanctions will remain in force until Russia changes its behavior.
But Trump has hinted that a deal with Moscow on sanctions relief could be possible if the Kremlin offers the U.S. concessions on Syria or Ukraine.
“I would consider it if they do something that would be good for us. But I wouldn’t consider it without that,” Trump told Reuters last week.
Russia continues to deny involvement in the Skripal poisoning and is not likely to concede.
If Russia refuses to account for the Skripal poisoning by November, the law requires the president to select three sanctions measures from a list of six spelled out in the bill.
Some of the moves the Trump administration could take against Russia are fairly benign, said Newell Highsmith, a former legal adviser at the State Department on nonproliferation issues. “The administration could just pick a few exports or imports to restrict,” he said.
But other options, such as suspending the Russian airline Aeroflot’s ability to fly to the United States, could prompt a strong reaction. Russia could halt export of RD-180 rocket engines, which the United States uses to launch government satellites. Moscow could also retaliate by charging U.S. airlines more to cross Russian airspace en route to Asia.
Trump could also waive the sanctions altogether, but he would need to certify that doing so is essential to U.S. national security and notify Congress 15 days before the waiver takes effect.
Diplomats said the wide discretion the Trump administration has in choosing the severity of the sanctions gives Pompeo room to negotiate, but he will eventually have to answer to Congress.
“If the Russians concede nothing in these discussions, the Hill is going to clamor for a tough second round of sanctions,” said a GOP Senate aide.
Trump administration seeks to ease tensions with Moscow as new sanctions loom (WaPo)